
Jack is a very successful conservative (evangelical Christian) former securities trader who heads his own boutique investment management firm. He and I shared office space in San Francisco and he invited me to prayer breakfasts and Bible studies at the Bank of America top floor with people who wear more suits in a week than I own period. It was very interesting to see genuine conservative evangelical Christians in a city that some on their own side want washed away. . .
Until I moved away, Jack and I would argue over politics for hours, and even in our differences, I've always found Jack to be the sort of man who talks and walks straight and kindly.
He sent this letter out today and I received his permission to post it, since between the Des Ford and Darwin discussions, money matters too. - Alexander Carpenter
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice from me, Spectrum or Jack to you. Do not use it as such.
____________
Dear Friends,
I have had a number of you contacting me about the woes in the financial markets so let me briefly opine on my take and how I see things developing and how your stock accounts will be affected.
Today, we had the largest one day drop pointwise in the S&P 500 and DOW - EVER. Although percentage wise there have been greater drops, it certainly gets our attention. All of you who are in the market have less today than yesterday. The quarter closes tomorrow so be prepared for sticker shock when you see your brokerage statements in about a week. The DOW is at the same level it was three years ago. Oil prices dropped 11% today as fears of a deteriorating worldwide economy hints at lessening oil demand. The stock market lost $1.1 trillion in market cap just today. To put it in some perspective, the $700B "bailout" package represents 3% of the New York Stock Exchange.
Obviously, the House voting down the $700 billion package surprised nearly everyone and that's what killed the market. What is happening really is the sub-prime mortgage crisis has caused this and the government wanted to buy these "toxic mortgage-backed securities" up to $700 B worth at fire-sale prices - hopefully. If and when these mortgages get paid off, then the government will get paid back and, perhaps, even make money on it as an investment. If the mortgages were purchased on an average of about 50 cents on the dollar, the government stands to make about 12-13%. The risk is if the purchases are made at above market rates and/or the mortgages totally fall apart and then the taxpayers will bear the cost after all. However, the term "bailout" is a misnomer. It is an investment made by the government to help stabilize credit in this country. Former Secretary of Labor, Robert Reich has called this "socialized capitalism."
What the real problem with the package failing today is that it has caused the credit markets to become fossilized.
It will be nearly impossible for anyone to get credit for car loans, school loans, housing, and general purchases. If it continues, the economy will grind to a halt, there will be massive layoffs, no credit for payrolls and inventory purchases leading to recession and a severe one - perhaps, a depression.
The international stock markets when they open shortly will probably experience a bloodbath. When the U.S. market opens tomorrow, the fall could very well continue. Because of the Jewish holiday tomorrow, no work will be done on a new House package. Most likely, it will not come to another vote until Friday or next week. If a package is passed next time, the stock market should soar. The longer they wait, the longer the stock market and credit markets and the economy will languish.
This is not a bailout of Wall Street and a brush off to main street as some critics of the package have asserted. Wall Street is Main Street. The little guy/gal - you - me - will be affected by this. Already your stock accounts are declining. The government buying distressed mortgages because banks can't has to be enacted. Ideologically, many may feel the government has no business in this and let banks and investment banks fail and let the chips fall as they may. Such draconian measures are too horrific to imagine.
Until this package is passed or some reasonable facsimile, the stock market will roil. When passed, the stock market will bounce back. The longer they wait, the worse all this will become. When it comes to equities, I encourage you to think long-term. The short-term picture is ugly.
I am hopeful that things will work out, probably over an 18 month period.
Sincerely,
Jack W. Bellingham
Registered Investment Advisor
President
Bellingham Investment Management
Alex: When I asked Jack about posting it on our blog, he told me to tell those Adventists, "w/o the package, they'll live to witness Armageddon. . ."
Comments
I am glad my faith is in God - not any economic system.
I would be really stressed out otherwise.
I trust that His Kingdom will continue to crash through into our world - and I hope to be a part of it (with or without my new car/house/computer/________).
If only I had shorted WaMu last year...and stayed short as long as the government would let me! A man named John Paulson shorted sub-prime in 2006 and netted 3 billion in 2007! That 'b' is not a mistake.
I smell herds of rats on Pennsylvania Avenue and on Wall Street. It's a rat-race...and the rats are winning. Where were the regulators, referees, and economic geniuses when the credit bubble was inflating? Now the referees are throwing the football and tackling the players, and taking over the ownership of the teams. This game is out of control.
The rich are getting richer. The poor are getting poorer. And they are getting rid of Mr. In Between. Ron Paul and Jim Rogers are two people worth listening to regarding recent economic developments.
If your heart is still beating after taking a beating today...the following 11 part video is guaranteed to precipitate full cardiac arrest: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ueEfRXZCVA. CLEAR!
Regarding the current ability to obtain credit: In God We Trust. All Others Pay Cash...
Although I don't fundamentally disagree with Jack, I would like to say some things he hasn't.
1. The Bush administration has been in office for almost eight years and it cannot wholly escape responsibility for what has taken place.
2. The mantras we hear so often that "regulation" is bad and "free markets" are good are useless slogans. Every economy needs a healthy mix of the two, and achieving the right mix necessarily is a continuing effort.
3. Milton Friedman's economic philosophy that the sole moral purpose of a corporation is to increase the income/wealth of its shareholders has educated many of our generation's business people to take nothing else into consideration when making their decisions. Corporations were first formed in part to serve the common good. Business schools need to teach this too.
4. One of the commentators tonight said that we didn't get into this trouble in 72 hours and it may well take us longer than that to get out of it. I agree.
5. Ordinary citizens are rightly cautious because the Bush administration has previously rung the bells of "immediate danger" to get its own way, the war in Iraq being the most obvious example.
6. None of this can be divorced from the fact that we are spending 10 billion dollars that we don't have on that war every month.
7. Much trading on the stock market is of little [I don't say none!] social value. If I buy 100 shares in one moment for 100.00 each and sell them each in five minutes for 110.00, I've done well for myself. But what new services or products did I help produce? How is my community enhanced?
8. Yesterday Newt Gingrich said on television that after 10 million people read the 100 + page Bill on the Internet overnight, events on Monday might not be as expected. He was right.
9. I have not read the whole of it; however, I did read enough of the Bill to email my two Senators and one Representative in hopes that they would vote against it. I suspect they voted for it!
10. I believe that the Bill as it now stands is too vague and toothless with respect to the powers of the Treasury Secretary and the question of executive compensation. There are probably other problems as well.
11. Those who are hurt at this time are those of us in the United States who have investments in the stock market. But another 50% in our nation doesn't and probably never will. What about them?
12. Why should tax payers pay for the bad loans that mortgage brokers sold by the millions to people who could not afford them? Shouldn't they--the unwise lenders and borrowers--accept the consequences of their bad decisions? Is there no other way to print 700 billion dollars and pump them into the economy?
We'll get a Bill in a short time; meanwhile, we might want to relax and listen to the House Republicans. They might have a good idea or two
I say this as a Democrat!
Thanks!
Dave
Dave,
I like where your thoughts are. Those that can read Spanish should check out Herold's latest column at
http://spectrummagazine.org/cafe_hispano/2008/09/29/globalizacion_econom...
or in a poor, automated but free translation into English via google at
http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A//spectrummagazine.org/cafe_hispano/2008/09/29/globalizacion_economica&hl=en&langpair=auto|en&tbb=1&ie=UTF-8"?
It was rather astonishing to see Ben Stein and Bill Krugman agreeing with each other tonight on Larry King. They both said this bailout plan is a big stinker, but they both agreed that it should have passed. The problem isn't just for those who own stocks or want something new; the problem is that our entire economy runs on credit. Many of us rely on credit just to get by, especially as the prices of gas and food have gone up. With a massive credit crunch, credit limits are going to start dropping, so people will lose their buffers.
If you'd like a bit of a laugh (excuse the title...)about these dire and bleak matters, see this Daily Show clip from last week where Jon Stewart compares Bush's speech announcing the need for a bailout plan with his eerily similar announcement about the need for war in Iraq.
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=186052&title=clust...
A couple points.
First as to the authors assertion.
"What is happening really is the sub-prime mortgage crisis has caused this and the government wanted to buy these "toxic mortgage-backed securities" up to $700 B worth at fire-sale prices - hopefully. If and when these mortgages get paid off, then the government will get paid back and, perhaps, even make money on it as an investment. If the mortgages were purchased on an average of about 50 cents on the dollar, the government stands to make about 12-13%."
This is not a net figure. If you dont have any money (and we know the goverment doesnt!) you have to borrow it. That comes right off the top and accrues even if the "investment" tanks.
The second is in regard to davidrlarsons point here.
"2. The mantras we hear so often that "regulation" is bad and "free markets" are good are useless slogans. Every economy needs a healthy mix of the two, and achieving the right mix necessarily is a continuing effort."
Actually the free market does work. The correct undrstanding of the concept only happens when the speculating entity KNOWS the government WILL NOT bail them out after they run away scot free with their winnings leaving taxpayers holding the bag. This concept plays out in harmony with your other point here.
"7. Much trading on the stock market is of little [I don't say none!] social value. If I buy 100 shares in one moment for 100.00 each and sell them each in five minutes for 110.00, I've done well for myself. But what new services or products did I help produce? How is my community enhanced?"
The stock market players are the same as the bad loan players. Just like the banks who gave value+ loans in apprecating markets, they buy and sell not based on a companies value or market earnings. No, they buy and sell based on finding someone who will pay .10 more for the shares they bought yesterday.
Outlaw day trading and you will remove the gamblers and send them back to Vegas where they will only drag themselves down and not us along with them.
The stock market used to be a fair preforming long term investment. Now its another Vegas or Atlantic City.
These investors are single handedly the greatest factor in the price we are currently paying for gas right now.
Many produce nothing, create nothing, employ few relative to value and like bookies, take their cut or commissions right off the top whether their clients win or lose.
Didnt anybody see Eddie Murphy in Trading Places?
To see the author decrying easy credit as in the quote below is amazing.
"It will be nearly impossible for anyone to get credit for car loans, school loans, housing, and general purchases."
Imagine that. People actually buying things only when they have money. Next they will be telling us that we cant pay off our Visa with our American Express. What is this crazy twisted world comming too?
A partial answer(for me, at least) is 1. Get out of debt, and stay out of debt. 2. Get out of war, and stay out of war. 3. Don't play Globocop. 4. Obey the U.S. Constitution in a more 'literal' than 'living' sense.
If someone wanted to weaken and destroy our country...one of the best ways to do this would be to get us to do exactly the opposite of the above 4 points.
Perhaps we need more Robin Hood Traders...who out-trade the rich...and give most of their earnings to humanitarian causes. What if there was no stock market? Would the economy collapse? Would the economy be more stable, and less liable to corruption and market manipulation? What if there was a one week rule...where traders would be required to at least hold a security for 5 business days? Would this remove some of the volatility in the markets? Would this turn traders into investors and require concentration on fundamental rather than technical factors? Too many bad people make too much money. Too many good people lose too much money.
Here's another take on the problem:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/29/miron.bailout/index.html
Excellent commentary, Zane. Thanks for bringing it to our attention!
Dave
Daneen, I love The Daily Show. Stewart and Colbert skewers them all and their satirical and comedic view projects the truth much better than mere facts. My "hit" of the day for laughs.
Different figures have been given, but it is a fact that Clinton left office with a surplus and in a very short time, the deficits began piling up: one reason was the big taxpayers getting their taxes cut to "improve business" and the old Reagan era of "trickle down economics" that never trickled down but stayed in the top guys' pockets.
A great cartoon seen recently: An old weather-beaten overalled man with a straw in his mouth rocking on the porch of his bait & tackle store, telling his young son that he hoped that when he grew up the business would become "too big to fail" and he could really strike it rich. Just wondering: how big is "too big."
"mark to market" out of the cities or sities with more suits in a day that stink dirty worse than one farmer's wealth of northwest rule of law land ownership is what I say. Penurious city people who have arrived lately and being dispossessed never take the lead for
what is right and what should be left. The percentage of latins in 911 incident that came down is worth recounting. Anything to get fast wealth like the rat raced come lately security educations. I hate the filthy cities where nary a ray of full spectrum light arrives for people. Even farm pig pens get the bacterocidal rays more than the deformity results of the behind concrete sity.
I have lost millions. My portfolio is down 33% in 3 months. And how cunning the city rats are buying and selling in the midst of the rip off. The Dow has not dropped but 200 points but it is those drops that they can excuse to lower your
net worth by isen't it? Ever thought of the 401k raid the rats have made at this time. It is in the city that a rat and squirrel enter a fight to the death. Sorry to say it but the rat of US treasuries is a win lose situation. What if ...
Post new comment