What’s Really Up With North Pole Sea Ice?

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Andrew Revkin at the Times' science blog, Dot Earth has a good post up with the facts (and great graphs) on the recent news about the North Pole losing its ice caps. He writes:

"it’s clear that, by the end of the 1990s, the veneer of ice on the Arctic Ocean had shifted to a far more tenuous state, with ever less thick, years-old ice like the floes I camped on when I went with the team setting up the annual North Pole Environmental Observatory. The animation above shows that the ice was flushed out, not melted.

Most of the seasoned Arctic ice experts I’ve canvassed for recent stories see the region exhibiting a mix of natural variability in the ice (like the flushing process) and a long-term trend toward less of it in summer, and more of it being fresh-made each season, and thus thin and easy to melt. Most also are convinced the change is now at least partly driven by human-caused global warming.

Their various projections are laid out in monthly Sea Ice Outlook reports. Right now the odds are essentially even on a 2008 match for the dramatic ice loss last year."


Comments

As I do live in canada...its amazing the amount of enviromental garbage that you americans will swallow. The most recent study by our scientists and the Inuit people is that they have never seen this much ice in the arctic in over 30 years. Due to the fact that this past winter was one of the coldest and longest on record. Fishermen had to be rescued from sea ice as they were surprised to see so much ice that far south.Iceburgs were once again seen from the shores of newfoundland...an 85 year old man was quoted as saying...I have not seen this since I was a child. A small town on the northern tip of newfoundland were surprised when a polar bear walked through town and police had to chase the bear away. This was due to pack ice getting too close to the shore line which made it easy for the bear to gain access to land. The Inuit people say there is no shortage of polar bears. We hunt them every year and we the Inuit people maintain their numbers quit well. When the ice does melt the bears move with it. Once in a while a bear will stay on a peice of ice for too long and will sometimes drift too far away and that bear might drown as a result. But overall, the bears know what to do. Recently an american state made the polar bears part of the endangered species act. That is amusing to us canadians, you americans don't have polar bears or any authority to tell us what to do with our bears.

Do you want to cite anything beyond an anecdotal story?

And just so that we're clear here, every single major Canadian scientific body believes that global warming is affected by humans and should be addressed post haste.

And just so you get your facts right, the whole United States Interior Department, not just one state, moved to protect polar bears, since there less than 30,000 left.

If I may quote from an actual source:

There are more than 25,000 bears in the Arctic, 15,500 of which roam within Canada’s territory. A scientific study issued last month by a Canadian group established to protect wildlife said that 4 of 13 bear populations would most likely decline by more than 30 percent over the next 36 years, while the others would remain stable or increase.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/15/us/15polar.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slo...

So it looks like Canada's government is also acting. Kinda makes the preceding comment look more informed by emotion than reason and reliable information.

Before you go laughing at American's you might want to actually read what your scientists are saying.

http://www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2008/06/26/f-qanda-mcbean.html

The problem we have with clobal warming is its man made the U.S Defence Dept weather manipulation system the HAARP weather system cutting hole in the ozone layer also causing man made earthquakes ie China, Flooding in America, man made Indonesia sunami, man made Tailand sunami, manmade the system is based in south pole.
The Bible says natural disasters will increase in the last day and God new it would be man himself.
There is no reason for god to destroy life or his creation The natural disasters are man made

Which is it??...25000, or 30,000 bears. If you believe what the n.y.times and cbc.canada say about these matters, I have a bridge to sell you. My info comes from a radio interview done by cbc with the Inuit people. Not all canadian scientists agree about "climate change" other than its been going on forever. You neglect the fact we have more ice now than anyone has seen in over 30 years. Want to know about the iceburgs and town roaming polar bear?...go to canada's weather network...they posted the stories and pictures. By the way when I went to find that interview with the Inuit people about the ice melt...it has strangely disappeared from the cbc archives. And the person who wrote...god has no reason to destroy....what about the flood...what about the greatest mass killing of humans in history, when jesus returns. by the brightness of his coming. We have been having natural disasters all through history, but now we cause them??? A recent study of the ice shows much less pollution now than there was 25 years ago, another strangely missing news report from the cbc archives. They even sent a reporter with that team . I do believe weather will be weird in the ...last days...but, who is really in control of the weather?? Bible seems to indicate...God is... but satan and his bad angels can do some disasters of their own I too believe. There are two sides to every story...are there not??? The only one that counts is...on which side of God are you on??

With the billions that have been spent on space exploration, and speculation on whether humans may one day live on some planets in our galaxy, why is there no one interested in establishing homes and investing in living in the Antarctic, or the Arctic where it is far more hospitable than anything we've yet found in space?

It's interesting how the scientifically challenged also seem to have trouble with basic math & grammar. Hmm. . .less than 30,000 but more than 25,000 contains about 4999 explanations to me. And wait, did you just question my use of the CBC and than reveal that your evidence comes from the CBC?

In addition, thanks to Rick, we once again see the wacky conspiracy theories that lie behind climate change denial.

Yes, there are multiples of perspectives (just as there were about the flatness of the earth), but often, with just a little dedicated comparative analysis (you know, beyond just hearing things) the side of facts and peer-reviewed experimentation does reveal itself.

It always strikes me how excited some folks get at the prospect of mass death, even when it doesn't turn out to be that imminent of a sign. "It's cool hundreds of thousands of Armenians, stop crying out in pain, just another rumor of war for me.

I guess I just don't understand the expressed shock about the fact that 6 billion humans emit tons of carbon into the air. Compared to what? Some folks remarking about the increase of snow in one part of the globe. This is a climate changing reality that every climate scientist recognizes. Again, how does this raise questions about whose side of God one is on. . .

Can we have an adult conversation about climate and the human role without a person's salvation being the control variable?

Cherry picking others comments mr. carpenter...that is mighty liberal of you. Did not know I had to be a scientist to read the many articles I research about climate change. You say ..every climate scientist...the meteorologists of north america do not agree with global warming. Many scientists are afraid to speak out because the liberals and liberal media will try to destroy thier careers, Can't blame them for staying silent. Climate change..yes..but that is always going on. Recent study by nasa, revealed that the earth has been cooling for the last ten years...but you can ignore nasa...what do they know? Also that the sun, from time to time, not constantly has been emitting more heat than the usual amount. From time to time even venuse and mars are warmer. But overall...there is a cooling in process. Go figure. 6 billion people making carbon??? You forgot that 95% of the carbon is made naturally by the earth. We humans might and I stress, might be responsible for less than 5%. And the ice burgs being seen off the coast of newfoundland...its because the atlantic ocean has been cooler than usual..therefore ice burgs take longer to melt and will thus travel further before they melt. Sorry for the ..dick and jane writing..but I was afraid you might not get it. And I do not take pleasure in the death of million or billions when Jesus returns. Ellen white said there would be all kinds of terrible weather and other disasters in the end of times...of which I believe we are now living in. But she also said...man can do nothing about it. Could she have said this because if we can't stop it...maybe we are not causing it. Two sides to every story...isn't there? Pick your poison. And may God have mercy on us all.

Within three days or less, I will have my second great grandchild. So I am interested in the future. I want him to have at least the same opportunities that I have had and preferably the opportunity to greet the Lord Jesus Christ without the need of resurrection power. I have no idea about the human impact upon Global Warming. I do know that human beings are not only very wasteful of things but of each other. It is the wasefullness of other human being that should be the focus of Adventist attention. Is not the Gospel Commission to tell the world about Jesus Christ and not Global Warming?

Lots of things go "kreak" in the night. Right now the flooding in the Mid-West, and the disasters in South East Asia and the Wars and threats of war in the Middle East should be of concern to Christian men and women. Certainly, the magnitude of each issue is beyond human management in any sense of real time. Let our pray be: "Lord God of Hosts be with us yet less we forget, less we forget.!" Then to the extent of our ability and resources brighten the corner where we are. If the Polar Bears are an index factor of the fate of the human race--then let us be about our Father's business. Jesus Christ is Lord and say with Paul and Silas to jailers and jailed alike: "Believe on the Lord Jesus Christ and thou shalt be saved and thy house." Beyond that we can pray for "Peace in our time!" Until all shall come to a conviction of salvation in Christ alone.

Yes the Ice Cap is important, but not as important as the wedding garment. I can do something about the wedding garment, I can do very little about the ice cap except use fossil fuels with great frugality. Tom

Tom, you and I are much closer than our grandchildren, or even great-grandchildren to eternity. However, it should be our responsibilty to pass along to them a better earth than we may have found it. The old saying that our best memory is to leave the world a better place for our having been here.

Neither of us want our offspring to be plagued with disease-producing pollutants in the air and water, or anything at all that we could help to prevent. We cannot prevent floods, earthquakes, volcanoes, and many natural diasters, but some we have brought upon ourselves and we are responsible if we are our brother's keeper to prevent such things from happening.

For any Christians who have focused more on the future to the extent of overlooking the present, that is not caring for others, as we should.

Thank you Tom and Elaine.

That sort of forward thinking, frugality and human-centric concern makes me proud to be one of many blessed grandchildren of the greatest generation.

Tom, I agree with you on "I have no idea about the human impact upon Global Warming" at least it is beyond my ability (or at least my time constraints) to decisively declare who is responsible for what in this Global sense. What I do know is that as fuel prices go up I am driving slower and less. That is good. I also know without needing data that all this plastic packaging and the throw away philosophy of most of what I buy just can't be right. I just don't know what to do about it all.

I guess I just don't understand the expressed shock about the fact that 6 billion humans emit tons of carbon into the air.
Posted by: Alexander Carpenter | 29 June 2008 at 5:17

Dont we get to subtract all the buffalo and species that have gone extinct in the last 300 years?
There were alot of buffalo. It should be a zero sum game.

That was tounge in cheek but really airborne carbon based gasses are what the greenery on this planet thrives on. Its a reciprocal relationship where we produce what they need and they produce what we need.

Ah yes. Good to see classic, unsourced climate science denial example 3.b.:

Objection: According to the IPCC, 150 billion tonnes of carbon go into the atmosphere from natural processes every year. This is almost 30 times the amount of carbon humans emit. What difference can we make?

Answer: It's true that natural fluxes in the carbon cycle are much larger than anthropogenic emissions. But for roughly the last 10,000 years, until the industrial revolution, every gigatonne of carbon going into the atmosphere was balanced by one coming out.

What humans have done is alter one side of this cycle. We put approximately 6 gigatonnes of carbon into the air but, unlike nature, we are not taking any out.

Thankfully, nature is compensating in part for our emissions, because only about half the CO2 we emit stays in the air. Nevertheless, since we began burning fossil fuels in earnest over 150 years ago, the atmospheric concentration that was relatively stable for the previous several thousand years has now risen by over 35%.

So whatever the total amounts going in and out "naturally," humans have clearly upset the balance and significantly altered an important part of the climate system.

If anyone of the "buffalo" crowd is actually serious about the issues involved, check out a good FAQ here.

Durig WWII I spent a week on the side of Mount Shasta fighting wild fires. The fire rangers said the fires were set by cattle men. They had a right to graze their cattle on national forest land. As their herds grew they needed more grazing land so they would set fire to thin out the trees enough for grass to grow.

Similar projects are going on in the Amazon basin etc. When God gave man dominion I think He had something else in mind. I must say that there is more forest land and deer in Georgia today than there was when Georgia first became a colony.

Furthermore, the emissions from paper mills is way down--I haven't smelled sulfur in the Augusta Air for over 25 years. We are still getting mercury down stream on the Savannah from a major chemical plant. A case for soy beens.

Tom

Yeah, the local newspapers here have been talking about this, there is even a chance that the north pole will be mostly iceless by september this year according scientist Mark Serreze, who works at the National Snow and Ice Data Center. He says that the ice is melting faster than last year which was a record year. As the ice melts, the sun reflection (on the ice) becomes less and the see therefore becomes warmer, and the ice melts faster. But there are others that estimate an iceless north pole (during summer) within 5-10 years. According to the news, the countries (Canada, Greenland, Denmark, Russia) are now exploring their right to the area. And apparently George Bush is encouraging to further search for oil in Alaska's ocean area.

In Iceland we've had two polar bears come to the north coast (about a week between them) just last month (we don't get those kinds of visits sometimes for many years). They have probably drifted away on melting icebergs and then swim ashore when the iceberg were completely melted. There were some bloggers joking about that maybe the polar bears realized the seriousness of the matter and were trying to make their way to the south pole. I read an article on the Spiegel int. about biologists debating whether animals (incl. polar bears) should be relocated because of fast changes in climate. They state that seven of the 12 polar bear populations studied to date are stable or even growing, and if they would be relocated to the Antarctic there would probably come to a bloodbath among the southern continent's nesting penguin populations...Now we wouldn't want that either.

I have to admit that I am quite pesimistic that there will be a big change for the better regarding reversing the situation... the Amazon forest is disappearing and the increase in carbon emissions is not helping.

Sandra.

"It's interesting how the scientifically challenged also seem to have trouble with basic math & grammar."

"Ah yes. Good to see classic, unsourced climate science denial example 3.b.:"

Calling officer Dave,
Officer Dave, Alex is not playing nice with the other childern again......

Its getting pretty bad when you cant even recognize a little levity when you read it.

The buffalo people

Fact. It was classic.

Fact. It was without a source.

Fact. While it may not be the nicest thing, just look above, "Thy will" is discounting thousands of peer-reviewed studies while exhibiting exactly what I mentioned. If someone doesn't parse the difference between more and less, I'm a little wary about their climate theories.

At least good Pat includes links, even if the writer is not a scientist, rather a high priest in the church of corporatism who actually argues:

A second explanation is theological. Surely it is no accident that the principal catastrophe predicted by global warming alarmists is diluvian in nature. Surely it is not a coincidence that modern-day environmentalists are awfully biblical in their critique of the depredations of modern society: "And it repented the LORD that he had made man on the earth, and it grieved him at his heart." That's Genesis, but it sounds like Jim Hansen.

And surely it is in keeping with this essentially religious outlook that the "solutions" chiefly offered to global warming involve radical changes to personal behavior, all of them with an ascetic, virtue-centric bent: drive less, buy less, walk lightly upon the earth and so on.

Ah yes, so radical, that idea to consume less and walk more. I guess that would baffle the car service elite.

If he wants to attack folks who care for creation as being "awfully biblical in their critique of the depredations of modern society," I'm happy to accept that challenge.

Furthermore, this op-ed shows that the men who wield the most control on the market are more than happy to pay lip service to our religious values, except, as during the fights over abolition or now over climate change, the results would mean a few less million in their pockets.

Radical ideas like buying less and driving less. . .that has my whole office smiling.

Pat,

I read the linked WSJ article and found it an excellent piece of "prosperity gospel" apologetics. If one seeks justification for guiltless, unregulated, free-market consumerism, it would make an ideal proof text. In one fell swoop, the author dismisses all "leftist" science, economics, politics, and even theology; and dispenses an alternative gospel prescription of his own. It made me feel the "abundant life" gospel Jesus preached somehow got co-opted by the Free Market Church of Wall Street.

Perhaps, in an over-the-top, shop-till-you-drop, western, "civilized" culture, a little dose of "ascetic, virtue-driven bent", and a "light carbon foot print and sexual abstinence" might be of some value.

Like I said...two sides to every story. All you people who like reading these posts? Try this...google...global warming myth...notice the nasa artical, and many others...happy reading and God Bless.

Yep, two sides, like round earth or flat earth.

Try this...google...round earth myth...notice the edf artical, and many others...happy reading and God Bless.

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